By Jon Davis, Mark Russo, & Kyle Griffin

For the latest information and updates from our team of meteorologists about tropical threats this season, visit the Real-time Analysis page.

 

AS OF 10 AM CT, WEDNESDAY, 8/23: Tropical Depression Harvey has re-generated this morning in the western Gulf of Mexico. Harvey will strengthen as it moves from the Yucatan Peninsula towards the Texas coastline over the next three days. If Harvey becomes a hurricane, it would be the first to hit Texas since Hurricane Ike in 2008 and the first hurricane to hit Texas in August since Hurricane Bret in 1999.

By Friday night, Harvey is expected to become a strong tropical storm or a low-end hurricane as it makes landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas. After making landfall, weak steering currents will allow Harvey to stall along the Texas coast for several days and create significant flooding risk for the Houston metro area and southwestern Louisiana. This risk continues through the early part of next week as Harvey will be slow to exit the region.

Track forecasts of Harvey are relatively well aligned on the central Texas coastline, although the intensity forecasts remain more uncertain at the time of this post. As Harvey is located over an area of extremely warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions, the environment is primed for the development of what could become the strongest storm this region has seen in nearly a decade. However, Harvey will remain a relatively compact storm, meaning that its most destructive winds will be limited in their areal extent.

Tropical Depression Harvey Radar Image

The most significant impact of Harvey (biggest risk) appears to be flooding in the southeast portion of Texas and Louisiana. Once inland, the jet stream steering currents across the south-central U.S. will be virtually non-existent over the weekend and early next week. As a result, Harvey, and the associated rains, will stall out across southeast Texas and Louisiana. The bulk of the computer models are predicting copious amounts of rain in this area. The image below portrays the 10-day rainfall totals based on the European computer model. Totals of 10-15 inches are likely with the possibility of amounts over 20 inches. This will result in extreme, and potentially catastrophic, flooding in portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana.  

Forecasted 10 Day Precipitation Totals August 23 2017

 

The forecast is constantly evolving and our Weather Watchtower is monitoring hundreds of new weather models each day. Click here to access Real-time Analysis from our team meteorologists and receive the latest insights on the impact of developing storms this season.